Katie Elzer-Peters, owner of The Garden of Words, a source for horticulture website building, writing, branding and publishing, said marketing and merchandising are now “extremely intertwined.”

“People are not buying stuff from you,” she said. “They are buying an experience.”

Part of that experience is on social media, since a large portion of IGCs’ target audience can be found there. To use social media properly, Ezler-Peters said it’s important to define your audience, communicate directly to them in the languages and visuals they understand, convey scarcity, hype your products up and provide an experience.

Defining your audience

“In order to define your audience, you have to know where they are,” she said. “You have to communicate with your intended audience on their preferred channels and see what resonates with who and where.”

While defining your audience, however, Elzer-Peters mentioned splitting your audience up in a “shop within a shop.” This means catering to an audience who come into your shop for different objectives, like outdoor gardening versus  houseplant shopping.

Digital data

Elzer-Peters described websites as “digital business cards” that should be loaded with communication regarding your IGC. Information such as current hours, updated inventory, COVID-19 procedures and that of the like, should be accessible here. Your website, social media channels and even voicemail recordings should also have the same information for continuity.

Brand voice and style 

Elzer-Peters said brand voice and style should be consistent across every platform, which even includes in-store signage, social media and email.

“These are your colors, your, fonts, it’s the overall feel of your communication,” she said. “You want to have a consistent experience from before customers walk into the door, all the way through a purchase.”

F.O.M.O. (the fear of missing out)                                                                                                

Conveying scarcity is a great way to force a decision, Elzer-Peters said. By putting time limits and the fear of missing out on the customer, they are more likely to decide if they’re going to buy or not buy.

Creating the hype

Generating “fandom” is a way IGCs can hype up their businesses and add excitement. By interacting with social media posts, reposting stories and sharing good reviews, IGCs can create a “fandom” circle that makes others curious. "’People like us do things like this’” is a way to attract new shoppers to join the “fandom” circle, Elzie-Peters said.

Providing the experience                                                                                                         

While giving your customers an experience is important year-round, Elzer-Peters said in this moment, it’s crucial. Because of the pandemic, people are bored, restless, anxious and nervous. Taking their minds off what’s happening is the leverage IGCs have right now.

“Give them something to do in their free time, make visiting your IGC an activity. Give them something pretty to look at when they get back home.”

Technology tools

Elzer-Peters provided a list of what she called a “tech stack” of applications that can be used to achieve the overall experiences she advised.

• For graphics, Canva is an easy-to-use application that can be paired with images, videos and copy for eye-catching social media posts.
• For scheduling, she advised Tailwind, Later and Hootsuite.
• For phone calls, Elzer-Peters said to record voicemails with options and dialable choices.
• Text messages can also be a form of customer service, receipts, marketing and confirmations.
• For email marketing, she advised MailChimp and Kiaviyo.
• For the top two social media channels, Elzer-Peters advised Facebook and Instagram.
• And of course, your website is pertinent, with or without e-commerce.

“It’s all about experience, giving the customer what they want and making it easier for them to buy with you,” Elzer-Peters said. 

Before the COVID crisis hit, the U.S. economy was in the longest expansion in its history. Housing and housing prices were peaking, consumption was steady, inflation was relatively in check and we were in our 128^th month of growth. “Things were rocking along,” said AmericanHort Chief Economist Charlie Hall. “I wouldn’t say we were blowing the top off, but we were rocking along.”

Other good signs were increasing (but plateauing) job growth and a generally steady stock market. In his January outlook, Hall had even reduced the probability of a recession from 50% to 40%. “Of course, I didn’t know that COVID was coming down the pike,” Hall said. “Otherwise I would have said 100%.”

At his State of the Industry presentation during Cultivate’20 Virtual, Hall pointed out that so far, the total economic effect of the pandemic has been a 5% drop in U.S. first quarter GDP. “Now that may not sound like a lot, but remember, we’ve got a $22 trillion economy annually,” Hall said.

Unlike the Great Recession, which saw a decrease in spending on durable goods like cars, houses, appliances and clothing, the coronavirus has pushed the U.S. economy into a spending crisis, mostly in the service sector, particularly in-person services, Hall said. According to the Census Bureau Center, in-person services have accounted for 67% of the decline in spending.

“This is the first recession in which we’ve seen a cutback on services because even during the Great Recession, we actually had an increase in services spending (3%),” Hall said. “That’s not so during COVID. We’ve cut back on durables; we’ve cut back on non-durables, but we’ve REALLY cut back on services.”

The recovery curve and the COVID curve

Hall stressed that shape of the recovery curve is directly related to the shape of the COVID curve, predicting a 35% decrease in GDP in the second fiscal quarter.

 “This is unprecedented,” he said. “This will be the largest single decrease in quarterly GDP that our country has ever seen. It’s going to blow the top out of any records before.”

However, in the third quarter, he predicts a bounceback — but not back to pre-COVID numbers. A full recovery will depend on how the country handles the virus including “how soon we get a vaccine, how long it takes for cases to go back down. We’ve got California, Florida and Texas skyrocketing right now — that all shapes the recovery curve.”

The recovery also depends on pent-up demand, the number of business failures and the policies put in place, but it all hinges on lowering the rate of infection, he said.

As state and local economies re-opened across the U.S., we have not seen a major difference in spending between states that have re-opened versus those that did not.

“Spending decreased before closing ever went into effect,” Hall said. “You see spending did not jump up to where it used to be. It stayed low. So, the effect of reopening has been mixed because people don’t want to get this coronavirus.”

And as stimulus payments hit mailboxes and bank accounts, lower-income households upped their spending back to about 5% under normal rates, while top income earners increased at a much lower level.

The payroll protection program, on the other hand, brought higher income earners back into the workforce at a much higher rate than lower income workers. And company earners have not yet picked up.

“The policy tools we have in effect have been mitigated in terms of the impact,” Hall said. As Congress plans to spend another $1 trillion on relief, “We need to look very carefully at the policy tools because what we’ve put into place so far has been partially effective.”

Industry performance

Going into 2020, the industry was positioned for five-year increases and in late May, about two-thirds of growers were reporting increased sales year-to-date, according to Hall’s Your MarketMetrics numbers. Much of that depending on whether growers were located in areas where they were deemed essential businesses.

“On the retail side, despite Armageddon in the first part of spring, year-to-date are up 12.1% in terms of their overall sales,” Hall said, citing numbers from Ian Baldwin’s Your MarketMetrics. “The average sale was up 17.5%.”

The Garden Center Group reported IGC YTD sales were up 28.8% this year, with average sales up 14.3% and transaction numbers up 14.9%. “You can see that these are positive data,” Hall said. “But is this going to continue?”

Hall said the real question is: What does post-COVID-19 look like? In previous recessions, industry sales have generally increased during the first year. The Great Recession was so bad that the industry didn’t see the bump it normally does, but in this recession, did see that increase.

The green industry typically takes a hit after that, during the recovery.

“When the recovery usually starts in previous recessions, people start turning loose their disposable income dollars and buying more cars and more refrigerators and dishwashers, more durable goods and cut back spending on flowers, shrubs and trees,” he said. “That’s what we’ve seen historically in all the recessions we’ve seen since 1948. We see a bump in the first year of the recession and then right when recovery starts, that’s when we take our hit as an industry. “

Where we go from here

Hall said 2021 could be great for the industry, but again, it depends on how the coronavirus is managed as well as durable goods spending. Durable goods spending has declined this year, but not at the rate it did during the Great Recession.

It depends on Congress as well. If the federal government passes policies that bolster local governments, there’s the potential for a good spring next year. “But there’s no guarantee of that because there’s so much uncertainty in terms of COVID,” Hall said. “So that’s why I can’t tell you with 100% certainty because I can’t tell you with 100% certainty how we’re going to handle COVID for the rest of the year.”

This year, some growers made the difficult choice to draw back on planting and seeding, and experienced shortages in demand. “That’s why some people were down this year,” Hall said. “They didn’t have the product.”

Is that a wise choice for next year? “That depends on your risk preference curve,” Hall said. “Again, there’s a great deal of uncertainty and yet the opportunity is there because we are making headways.”

One of the best things to do now is continue to emphasize the essentiality of the green industry, Hall said. In the midst of a health crisis, there are many opportunities to promote the benefits of plants for human health and psychology.

“Do not let the media shape your strategic vision,” Hall said. “Know enough to know the difference. Do your homework and right now we have an opportunity. Let’s make hay while the hay is out there.”

For resources and articles on ways to promote the benefits of plants, visit Hall’s website: https://ellisonchair.tamu.edu/benefitsofplants/

Consumer spending is going to be the driver to get the U.S. economy out of the current recession, according to Ken Fisher, CEO of AmericanHort. During the Cultivate’20 Virtual State of the Industry presentation, Fisher explained that this recession isn’t a financial recession — it’s a consumer recession.

“This is a recession that’s going to be impacted by stubborn unemployment,” he said. “We’re hopeful that employment will come back quickly. We’re hopeful that the stimulus dollars will work but there are no guarantees and so we need to understand we’re in a recession.”

As the spreading coronavirus has kept consumers at home, Fisher noted that the recession is as much psychological as it is economical.

“People have been cocooning. We look at anything that’s been consumer-driven at home — bicycles, landscaping, appliances — they’ve done very well,” he said.

Fisher estimated that there has been an increase of about 25%, but the future remains uncertain. While the economy was strong going into the pandemic and stimulus money will hopefully soften the blow, it’s important to keep an eye on housing starts, consumer spending, business spending, the election and a vaccine.

“We’ve been fortunate that with consumers staying at home, they bought our industry and what we want to be able to see is we were able to hold strong pricing, shrink was low because everything sold through and discounting was minor,” Fisher said. “We need to be careful about our cash and our capital and our spending but we’re hoping in 2021 we’ll recover and have a good year there.”

Looking toward the recovery, Fisher noted that for the last 50 years recessions have been fairly short-lived. Optimistically, these last 10 to 16 months before returning to normal levels of spending, he said.

The essential battle

Before COVID-19 hit, the industry entered the spring with high hopes, especially from a sales perspective, said Craig Regelbrugge, senior vice president. Currently, the organization’s running estimate conveyed to USDA is in the window of $732 million to $1.2 billion in losses at the producer level.

Almost immediately after the pandemic started, AmericanHort went to work learning about the federal definitions as to what constitutes critical infrastructure and essential workers, but ultimately the decisions were made on the state, and sometimes local level.

“So we found ourselves fighting a lot of battles to make the case that all aspects of our industry should be considered essential and to the extent that they’re able to operate safely with an eye toward protecting employees and protecting customers that there should be ways to do so,” Regelbrugge said.

Thankfully, the industry won most of those battles and the supply chain continued to function.

“There were a few really difficult trouble spots – Pennsylvania and Michigan were examples where the battles raged longer and they were harder and the negative impacts on the industry were therefore greater,” he said.

And while Congress has passed stimulus measures and expanded the Families First Coronavirus Response Act to expand paid employee leave, Regelbrugge said the most substantial piece has been The Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act, including the paycheck protection program, economic injury disaster loans and more.

What’s next?

“I know it’s been frustrating for many of you. How are decisions being made? What’s the plan? How will the economy be affected? Basically no one really knows,” Regelbrugge said.

As the pandemic spread, highly perishable items like color plants, tropical foliage plants and flowering plants got stuck in the supply chain.

“In the supply chain, people were saying ‘We can’t deal with plants right now,’” Regelbrugge said. “We had tremendous losses rack up very rapidly, very unpredictably.”

But, Regelbrugge said, not everyone was affected, and AmericanHort has been clear with the USDA on that point, explaining the nuances of the industry. “This is not beans and corn,” he said.

The organization is now waiting on an announcement about the industry’s eligibility for the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP program). When the program rolled out in May, the green industry was not included but there was exclusive recognition and a request for further comments.

“Under the best of outcomes, no one is going to be made whole,” Regelbrugge said. “This is a partial loss recovery situation. For all the plants people had to throw out, hopefully we’ll see some relief that will help people recover.”

Despite the challenges growers and retailers faced this spring, for the most part, it ended strong, Regelbrugge said.

AmericanHort is launching a new offshore greenhouse certification program for unrooted cuttings, mostly annuals and perennials. The organization is working with the USDA to expedite the movement of roughly 2 billion cuttings coming in from certified growers who meet high standards.

AmericanHort is also working on protecting the H2-A and H2-B programs with the argument that halting immigration visas will hurt, not help, the economy. But people need to be doing everything they can do streamline their labor as well as distancing and sanitation.

“Employers need to be doing everything they can do protect their employees,” he said.

For a recap of Dr. Charlie Hall’s State of the Industry talk, click here.

At Cultivate’20 Virtual, Jourdan Cole, Maria Zampini and Katie Elzer-Peters shared how IGCs can improve customer expectations by focusing on three phases of the customer journey. Their session was titled “A Retailer's Planning Guide For 2021 Series: Customer Development for 2021” and they provided audience members with various tips to strengthen and build their customer base.

“Customer development sets customers up for success, whether that’s food security or stress relief, and it ensures that you will have repeat visits from customers,” Elzer-Peters said.

Here’s what IGCs should know about the three phases of customer development.

Pre-visit phase

Jourdan Cole, marketing and communications manager at Mt. Cuba Center, shared how IGCs can drive new and existing customers through social media channels.

“Continuing on social media is key to your brand's success during this time. Whether it's news or products, people are looking to find it online,” Cole said. “And this digital transition is not going away. Social distancing and shelter in place laws have people looking for new ways to connect.”

She noted that while many physical doors have been closed (and reopened) since the pandemic started, the doors to social media are always open, and provides digital markers ample opportunity to get creative while connecting online. She broke it down in three steps: listen, plan and speak.

The more connected IGCs are with their local community, the more growth opportunities their business will have. IGCs must first determine where they want to listen and consider demographics:

• Baby Boomers/Generation X – Facebook
• Millennials – Instagram
• Generation Z – TikTok or Snapchat

Next, IGCs must determine who they want to listen to. Cole suggested community leaders, such as school principals, artists and leaders of cultural organizations on social media. Their posts will keep IGCs in the know about local events and community updates, and they also open the door to partnership opportunities. She also recommended using hashtags, which allows businesses to dive deep into trends and get a pulse on the larger market conversation. This way, IGCs can give their audiences what they need before they even ask for it, Cole said.

Next, plan. IGCs must figure out where to post their message. To do this, they should choose one or two platforms to prioritize. Here’s where the majority of the audience is:

• Facebook skews older (50+ audience), but many of the 20+ demographic is also on Facebook Instagram, which is popular among the 20-35 demographic
• Twitter skews toward the 35+ crowd and should be used for quick news pieces
• Pinterest is a good choice for IGCs that have a lot of quality product shots or DIYs that they want to emphasize.
• TikTok or Snapchat will reach the youngest audience — and this generation will have spending power in the near future.

Retailers should update their hours on their website or Google. They should appoint one or two designated social media workers and have one person in charge of all platforms, or one person per platform for consistency.

Finally, IGCS must figure out their voice. IGCs should be relatable with their audience, but never offensive, she said. Have the social media manager create an editorial calendar of social media posts and think about any new changes happening at the IGC. Then, they should pair that with the three main communication points. For example:

• What's new in your store?
• Do you have new safety procedures?
• How are things different when customers are shopping now?
• Are you offering delivery or curbside pickup?
• Are you offering contactless checkout?
• Do you have updated business hours?

Cole suggested that retailers use an empathetic voice, online and in-store.

“Having this empathetic voice will help to make the lives of your customers a little brighter and it will help to create long term loyalty. You have to remember, everyone is trying to do their best right now, and they're balancing their personal lives at the same time,” Cole said.

Onsite phase

Marketing expert Maria Zampini, president and founder of PR firm UpShoot LLC, shared what retailers should consider once customers come to their site. First off, retailers need to make a great first impression. IGCs must set the stage beforehand (which falls into the pre-visit phase) and let customers know via their social media channels or website what precautions they are taking to keep customers and employees safe.

“I think it's better that you tell them in advance, and you show them when they get there what's happening, and what you're doing — versus them having to ask,” Zampini said.

It’s up to store leaders and managers to set the pace, tone and welcoming environment for their customers. Employees should take the time to learn customers’ names, ask what they’re looking for and how they can best serve them. Employees must acknowledge that the customer is always right, even when they're wrong. Associates can turn negative situations around when they ask an unhappy customer what they want. It will save time, and, in most cases, what customers want is less than what the IGC would have offered, she said.

Additionally, not every customer is not going to have an innate knowledge of plants. When a customer arrives with a dead plant asking for advice, don’t be a “plant snob” and don’t shame them, she said. This will deter them from attempting to buy plants in the future, and IGCs will lost repeat purchases. Instead, employees should give customers advice without judgment and help them choose what best fits their needs.

IGCs should cross-merchandise curated products with simple, eye-catching displays to boost additional sales. Zampini said IGCs should keep it simple, so that it’s easy for the customer to decide without being overwhelmed. It’s also OK to glean ideas from other garden centers for inspiration. Signage is important, and it’s an easy way for customers to find exactly what they’re looking for, she said.

“Facts tell benefits. So yes, it's nice to know what the plan name is, but tell me why I should buy this plant. What problem does it solve for me? Or why should I spend the money (that I don't have a lot of right now) on this plant? What is it going to do for me at this point in time?” Zampini said.

Efficient signage is critical in closing the sale, and retailers need to go the extra mile. But above all, associates must greet customers with the utmost kindness and respect.

“Don't forget, a smile is worth a thousand words. Your smile may be the only one someone sees now a days. If you have a mask, you can still see it in someone's eyes if they're smiling at you,” Zampini said.

Post-visit phase

Finally, retailers must focus on the post-visit phase, and marketing expert Katie Elzer Peters shared some of the top tips IGCs should follow to ensure repeat sales. Elzer-Peters, author and founder of PR firm The Garden of Words LLC, said the first thing retailers must do is continue to use their brand voice, which was established during the pre-visit and onsite phases. IGCs need to keep brand messaging cohesive during all three parts of the customer journey, from matching the social media tone to in-store visits and beyond.

“You don't want to be super sleek and modern in your brand voice or with your email marketing or your social media posts or anything you're doing,” Elzer-Peters said. “And then when people get to your site, it's very rustic or down home. There's nothing wrong with either of those two things. They just need to be cohesive.”

Next, garden centers must create interactive sales opportunities, which many IGCs have excelled at due to the pandemic.

“You're going to have some customers that are totally fine with coming in and shopping, browsing, as long as they're allowed to. I mean, who knows if we're going to have another shutdown and then you have other people that either they don't have time, or they don't feel comfortable,” Elzer-Peters said.

IGCs can address this by offering personal shopper sessions via FaceTime or consulting appointments. They can also try offering Zoom classes for specific plant care needs, and then offer a coupon to accompany the paid-for class.

Social media is another great way to engage with customers post-visit. IGCs should offer social media contests where users can post photos of their gardens and tag the IGC on Instagram or Facebook. IGCs can also go live on their social channels and conduct Q&As or tours. Or if they have ideas, offer premade kits available for curbside pickup, delivery or drop-off and conduct an online workshop with them. Retailers can also participate on apps, such as GrowIt!, and become part of a community where they can share their expertise.

“What people are really craving right now because they literally, physically cannot do it, is they're craving connection,” she said.

Another big post-visit initiative is outbound communication. Give customers the information they need to make better purchasing decisions by using social media, email or SMS texts. If IGCs haven’t tried email marketing yet, Elzer-Peters suggested retailers use MailChimp, which is east to use and cost-effective. Email marketing is a must, and it has some of the highest ROI of any marketing that IGCS can do, she said. SMS or text marketing is also a good place to start, and it can be especially helpful when alerting customers their pickup or delivery orders are ready.

Above all, IGCs need to keep their messaging benefits driven. Offer products and services based around timely concepts, such as staycation promotions, gardening to de-stress and relax or even the benefits of growing their own food. Helping customers feel accomplished should be a central in any IGC’s messaging or copywriting.

IGCs should merge their messaging with their merchandising to capitalize on the growing gardening trends, too.

“Gardening does not stop after July 4, and this is a really great year to try to make that happen. People are still at home. They still want things to do. They're stuck at home, they're staycationing — help them with their patio furniture, creating their own oasis. Keep the messaging going and keep their lives going,” Elzer-Peters said.  

Her final tip is that IGCs should cultivate relationships with garden communicators, such as newspaper columnists, master gardeners, local authors, Instagram influencers or GardenComm International members. Strike up conversations and relationships with these communicators for valuable marketability and partnerships.

“These people can help you amplify your message. And a lot of places are really not taking advantage of those connections,” Elzer-Peters concluded.