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The green industry is coming off a hot streak as we kick off the new year. Operations across North America, save for a few regions where lockdowns didn’t exempt greenhouse growers, saw historically positive sales volumes last spring, stretching into summer and fall.

Now that the wild and seemingly never-ending 2020 is firmly in the rearview, many horticulture operations that are flush with cash find themselves at somewhat of a fork in the road: is it wise to take advantage of grower-friendly finance rates and invest in expanding production to meet the new demand we saw in 2019? Or should they pay down debt and prepare for the possibility of yet another economic downturn? Hold market share and keep on keepin’ on, hoping for better days ahead?

Of course, many believe that any decision in this regard should strongly consider that the virus appears likely to stick around with us at the very least through yet another spring production season.

So, is 2021 the year for growers to make some big moves? Build that shiny new Dutch double-gutter expansion, or snap up that new environmental controller you have been eyeing?

Let us see what some experts in the industry have to say on the subject:

2020: outlier or new normal?

Mintel is a well-known market research firm that has been tracking and reporting on all kinds of consumer trends throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. The group conducted green industry focused research this summer, finding that 84% of American consumers are spending the same or more time in the garden than before the pandemic, and 10% have increased plant purchases from the year prior.

Purdue University’s Ariana Torres, an associate professor in the school’s ag economics department, warns not to read too deeply into those numbers, however.

“We believe that this is more due to a regional-specific effect, and we are finding evidence that non-essential shopping (including plants) has actually decreased. Consumers are feeling less confident about the growth of the economy going forward,” she says.

That said, Torres is seeing a significant shift in how people acquire plants, and greenhouse operations are also looking for new customers and markets.

“Data from the [Mintel] tracker also shows that 36% of plant purchasers are buying more online. One way growers can address new and complex industry trends is to aim direct sales as much as possible,” Torres says. “Today you’re seeing that happen with many growers that previously were only selling wholesale now trying to bypass the traditional brick-and-mortar retail route to market by selling to consumers online.”

Torres says that since March, a bunch of new businesses have sprung up as a response to the online demand to deliver plants, flowers and other green products directly to consumers. In the greenhouse world, this is especially true with the proliferation of delivery and curbside services.

“And retailers that were not traditionally plant-purchasers (e.g. Aldi) have agreed to support farmers and local centers and channel their products through this retail market,” she says. “Using social media marketing and other types of digital marketing can help businesses reach local customers in a cost-efficient way, often without a large up-front capital investment.”

Associate Professor Ben Campbell lectures on applied economics at the University of Georgia’s Department of Agriculture. Campbell himself advocates a restrained approach when it comes to the long-term investment and expansion question going into 2021. His own market research in 2020 revealed a mere 4% increase in consumer spending on plants compared to 2018 levels.

“I myself am a very risk-adverse person, and there are just too many uncertainties right now with coronavirus and what will happen with consumer buying next year,” he says. “There’s some optimism about a vaccine, but the odds of all of us having received it by spring 2021 are not great. Right now, I just don’t think we’ll see the same plant-buying boom that we saw in 2020.”

Campbell foresees more people returning to their normal office work routines, and more unemployed workers without the same unemployment compensation safety net they had in 2020, contributing to a return to pre-pandemic plant demand. Or possibly even lower levels of demand.

“Unless you have a local market already setup, and the demand is there and it is firm and stable, I would be very concerned about how 2021 is going to go from a sales standpoint, and I’d want to watch what I am doing as far as expanding,” he says. “We’re probably not going to have 2020 happen again in 2021, at least not anywhere near the size or scale that we saw. And if everyone expands their operations at the same time, we’ve seen in the past that can have a compressing effect on prices, and then demand likely will go down. That’s a big double whammy.”

Texas A&M University Professor and Ellison Chair Charlie Hall does not envision 2020 sales levels becoming the new normal in horticulture, either.

“Are all of the ‘newbies’ going to come back for a second helping of this whole lawn and garden thing?” Hall wonders. “A big part of that is whether they were successful or not with their plants. If they were successful, then sure, maybe. At the same time, it’s not like I’d be building 50 acres of greenhouses right now expecting this giant tidal wave of demand to be there.”

Hall bases that analysis on preliminary data from independent garden center pre-bookings for the upcoming spring season.

“Right now, including the lawn and landscaping side of the industry, it’s looking like we’ll probably see something in the neighborhood of about a 10% bump in demand from pre-pandemic levels,” he says.

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Consumer spending habits are evolving.

Economists across the board are sounding alarm bells on what businesses can and should expect to happen in 2021. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently cautioned that the economy is likely to shrink substantially across both the first and second quarters of the new year, with unemployment projected to increase up to near the 10% mark.

As of press time in mid-December, congressional passage of a new stimulus package had just been passed to help boost consumer spending. President-elect Joe Biden’s transition team has reportedly also been warned of the potential for a particularly devastating “double-dip” recession.

This would almost certainly have devastating consequences for the green industry. Generally, when consumers lack confidence in the economy, they save money and pay down debt while decreasing discretionary spending on goods and services until the economy recovers, or a stimulus is disbursed.

One of Hall’s many fortes is analyzing consumer spending trends and making sense of what those trends mean for the green industry, and more specifically, for growers themselves. Looking at the data of late, Hall is seeing a near future featuring less consumer spending on things like plants and flowers and trees.

“As we go through this pandemic, it is important for business owners to find technologies that reduce labor needs."

“Durable goods purchases have been extremely strong (during the pandemic) and consumers are still spending money on durable goods, some of which we attribute to the last stimulus payments putting a little extra cash in people’s pockets,” Hall says. “In most recessions we do see a bump in flower and other plant sales early on in the recession, but once the recovery starts consumers start spending more on durable goods, and there’s less to spend on flowers. It seems like that’s where we’re headed right now.”

For her part, Torres agrees that we will likely see a drop in consumer disposable income outlay during this second wave of the pandemic.

“Over time we will likely hit a demand-supply equilibrium, and it is better for growers to behave conservatively by paying off their debt with the highest interest, investing in cost efficient equipment, automating activities and processes, and reducing costs and increasing efficiency,” she adds.

Even with Americans’ discretionary fund spends likely to decrease in the short term, there are a couple positive developments that Torres thinks could help soften whatever blow the industry ends up absorbing.

“Plant demand from the Baby Boomers is increasing, and this segment of the population has spending power and is prioritizing local purchases and purchasing online,” she says. “And private home improvements continue to increase due to the fact that Americans are spending more time at home and prioritizing quality of life and gardening more.”

Torres also believes a strong and only growing stronger real estate market will continue to prop up demand for plants and new landscape features, benefiting garden centers and growers alike.

Photo © Nuthawut | Adobe stock

Labor a constraining factor, too

Long before anyone knew what the coronavirus even was, the green industries’ labor situation has long been singled out as the top constraining factor for growers looking to scale up.

“If you expand production and invest in new structures, then you’re going to need that much more labor,” Campbell says. “But the question still remains for many growers: Can you get it?”

The ag labor pool was essentially taking hits from all sides in 2020. Global travel restrictions made a very competitive immigrant labor pool that much tougher to maneuver, and laid off domestic laborers largely stayed home and collected the controversial $600 per week Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) payments rather than take lower-paying, manual labor intensive positions in farming.

“If you expand production and invest in new structures then you’re going to need that much more labor.”

These developments are only going to continue to exacerbate, according to Torres.

“Labor issues are becoming larger due to the pandemic,” she says. “Labor is one of the most important and expensive inputs for industry businesses, and it promises to remain a major worry due to lack of mobility, government unemployment payments, and immigration issues.”

Therefore Torres, while reminding growers to be smart and conservative and analyze any investments accordingly, does advocate they take a close look at adding automation technologies where they fit.

“As we go through this pandemic, it is important for business owners to find technologies that reduce labor needs,” she says. “Automation of activities, tools and technologies that improve the quality of products and services, and new processes that can spread or reduce the need for labor, should be prioritized.”

Caution moving forward

All three green industry economic experts we consulted independently offered growers the same advice: a conservative approach today could actually be more beneficial in the long run, versus a frenzied plan to expand in the immediate short-term.

“Having a conservative approach with the recently experienced liquidity can pay off later on,” Torres says. “And it appears that the best route forward today involves investing in economically feasible technologies that promote automation, and most importantly reaching out to consumers directly through online sales and uncovering new or non-traditional markets.”

She also believes growers should “prioritize cash flow health in the long-term” while trying to diversify their offerings into new or emerging crop markets like indoor strawberry production, or hyper-local vertical produce farming.

Campbell recommends much of the same risk-adverse go-forward plan as Torres, and he is keeping a keen eye on developments with the new administration coming into office.

“There is a lot of research and data out there that shows the economy tends to slow down coming out of an election, and when people are uncertain and don’t know what to expect from a new administration, they save rather than spend,” he says, noting that we don’t know what a Biden administration means for trade tariffs or input prices.

Perhaps the industries’ foremost voice on economic analysis and issues, Hall cautions growers not to get complacent and contented after many had their finest spring sales seasons in decades.

“Make sure you’re lean and make sure you’re efficient in everything you do,” he says.

“If another downturn is coming then I will generally tell people to defer large capital expenditures, defer maintenance expenses as much as they can, forget paying dividends and pay your suppliers within terms, meaning if you have 60 or 90 days to pay off a balance, then go ahead and take it. You do not have to pay everything off within 10 days.

“And making full use of any available lines of credit,” he says. “Is usually a good strategy, especially considering that during the last great depression if growers didn’t use those lines of credit the banks clawed those limits and rates back from them.”

Bottom line

The path ahead for the next few miles seems unclear at the present time. Perhaps there are more good times on the horizon, yet the prospect of more danger could lie just ahead. However you decide to play your hand in 2021, like any seasoned gambler, be sure to do your homework first.

The greater use of LED and HID supplemental lighting has increased the yield and quality of many crops grown in greenhouses. Extending the light period to reach the optimum daily light integral (DLI) is now within economic means for many crops as rapid advances in lighting technology and fixture efficiency improve. Now, growers need to address the problem of keeping the light within the greenhouse.

Reports continue to proliferate of neighbors to greenhouse operations upset that light pollution is impacting their environment and health. Currently, there are no dark sky designations (i.e. areas where light pollution is regulated to ensure good stargazing conditions) anywhere on the east coast of the U.S. Although very little of the problem can be attributed to greenhouses, the visual impact of a large greenhouse lit up all night can upset neighbors and encourage them to want to take action.

Common citizen concerns around light pollution typically include:

• Inability to view the stars and planets
• A negative effect on wildlife, ranging from the development of amphibians to foraging and mating
• Disruption of normal flight patterns of migratory birds
• Increased sleep disorders, headaches, fatigue and anxiety in humans

Having been the secretary to a local planning and zoning commission for 40 years, I have experienced public environmental concerns and the need for the commissioners to take action. This is starting to happen in some states now related to light pollution.

The industry needs to be proactive by coming forward with solutions that are acceptable to both growers and the public.

Recent action by the Kingsville, Ontario, town council shows the potential impact for greenhouse operators. The council passed a bylaw that will fine an individual $5,000 for a first offence and $10,000 for subsequent violations related to greenhouse light pollution. For corporations, the minimum fine is $50,000 for the first offense and $100,000 for each subsequent offense.

At the present time there are very few guidelines that commissions can draw on. How much stray light is acceptable? I am not aware of any research that shows the amount of light that escapes from a typical lighted greenhouse at night. It would include among other factors the indoor light level, type of fixtures and the transmittance of the greenhouse glazing. Most regulations that have been developed reference the International Dark Sky Associations standards that state that “no artificial light can escape a parcel upwards or outwards.”

In addition, enforcement of many of these regulations requires funding that is often difficult to acquire.

Here’s my advice …

Growers planning supplemental lighting installations should act proactively and address these concerns with the local building department or governing body, specifically with some possible suggestions

The best solution is to install blackout curtains both overhead and on the walls. This is a positive measure that can eliminate the problem. Curtain systems are expensive ($2 to $6/sq ft) but the savings in heat and the increased light that gets to the plants will help to pay for them.

Being proactive related to community concerns on light pollution is probably the best approach as regulations developed by local regulatory agencies can be very restrictive.

A good curtain material, such as Svensson 10075 FR AB+BW with a reflective upper layer and white bottom layer, has a heat energy savings of 75% and estimated 3% to 5% increase in reflective light that reaches the plants. Another material that is light and tight but allows moisture through is Obscura 9950 FR-W.

Regulations in the Netherlands, where the population density is high, sometimes require 95% to 98% of the light to be retained so that the screen can be cracked open to allow heat and moisture to escape.

A partial solution to the problem might include providing the supplemental light at the beginning or the end of the day when there is some natural sky light, but not at a level that increases the DLI. This reduces the appearance of lighting up the sky in the greenhouse area.

For some crops such as tomatoes and cucumbers, another option might be to install the lighting within or just above the plant canopy. It may also be possible to install the lighting system so that it can be lowered or raised to near the plant canopy reducing the amount of light that shines on the glazing.

Growing up in the greenhouse, Brian Austin has always been surrounded by plants. By age 6, he was pulling weeds for his dad, who worked as a head grower for many years.

“I had a fascination with plants from a young age,” Austin says. “I loved going into the greenhouse and helping my dad with little jobs on the weekends.”

When his dad opened his own wholesale operation, The Garden Path Greenhouse, in the late 90s, Austin gained experience in various aspects of the business, from planting to watering to driving trucks. To complement his informal growing experience, Austin pursued a Bachelor of Science in Horticulture and Landscape Architecture from Colorado State University, with concentrations in floriculture and nursery management.

“Being exposed to the science of how and why plants grow renewed my passion,” says Austin, who managed the CSU trail garden for a couple seasons. “I fell in love with growing.”

During his last semester of college, Austin started working weekends at Dutch Heritage Gardens in Larkspur, Colorado, located just south of Denver. When he graduated in May 2009, he joined the business full-time as an assistant grower. Then, in 2015, he was promoted to head grower. Now, Austin focuses on finding new ways to improve plant production by empowering his team to innovate.

Learning from new crops

Since 2006, Dutch Heritage Gardens has been producing high-quality bedding plants and potted crops for grocery chains like Kroger. In 2016, the Colorado-based operation recognized a new opportunity to grow young hemp plants for large farms.

“We already had the processes and infrastructure in place to produce large volumes of young plants because we do our own propagation of petunias and geraniums,” Austin says. “There wasn’t a good supply from people growing hemp out of garages and indoor spaces, so it was a natural fit to become a young hemp supplier.”

Austin assumed the transition to hemp would be as easy as growing petunias, but instead he encountered some unexpected rooting challenges.

“We buy all our annual cuttings from big farms, but with hemp, we have to grow the stock plants and then take the cuttings, so we had to set those cuttings up for success,” he says. “Some practices we’ve done to improve our hemp cutting quality include dipping them in certain formulations of rosemary oil, fertilizers and different concentrations of IBA rooting hormone.”

After seeing success with dipped hemp cuttings, Austin’s team began trialing dips for other crops like lotus and poinsettia, while also implementing new sanitation protocols across the operation to ensure plant cleanliness.

By 2019, hemp filled about a quarter of the 9-acre greenhouse facility. “We couldn’t grow enough hemp,” Austin says. “The market was hot.” In 2020, Dutch Heritage increased hemp production to a 50/50 split with its bedding plants. This spring, the company will add another 5 acres of greenhouse space to increase its capacity for both types of crops.

Encouraging new ideas

To maximize limited resources, Austin constantly explores ways to improve efficiencies at Dutch Heritage Gardens.

For example, he developed a program to stick unrooted cuttings directly into final containers — eliminating transplanting without affecting the rooting percentage (which improved in some cases). “That saved us 20% in labor during the spring, which is huge, because our location is so remote that it’s a challenge to get labor here,” he says.

To make the most of the labor he has, Austin taps into his team’s ideas for improving the operation. He regularly walks each section of the greenhouse one-on-one with his two assistant growers and three section growers, giving them the opportunity to propose solutions to the crop issues they’re reporting.

“I don’t want to be the only idea source here. I want them to come up with their own ideas, and know how to go about trialing it to see how it works,” Austin says. “Having the assistant growers conduct the trials gives them a higher sense of purpose. If their trial works out and we implement it into our growing method, they feel like they’ve contributed value — which they have.”

One of his growers is currently trialing different surfactants on poinsettia bracts to find a rate high enough to clean off water spots without causing phytotoxicity. Through these experiments, Austin empowers his team to discover process improvements.

“I’m not just giving orders, but guiding them to make their own educated growing decisions,” he says. “The more they learn, the more they grow; then the more we grow as a team.”

As much as Austin enjoys plants, being a head grower has taught him that cultivating people can be even more fulfilling than growing flowers.

“People take a personal investment of time and emotion, which obviously can be challenging — but that’s also the most rewarding thing (about being a head grower), is seeing people grow and succeed,” he says.

PHOTO © ivector | adobe stock

The damage done by the COVID-19 pandemic is real, far-reaching and yet to fully manifest for many of us. No doubt we have numerous challenges yet to face on the horizon. That said, the surge in public interest in plants and gardening products was welcomed by growers and garden centers alike in 2020. Gardening enthusiasm was a singular bright spot in a very dark landscape.

Many businesses — but not all — saw some of their biggest sales increases in years. It looks like we will potentially face another busy spring in 2021. Unfortunately, the increased demand coupled with supply chain and market volatility — not to mention labor shortages — may make it challenging for growers and retailers to meet plant demand expectations in the new year.

The biggest concerns voiced to me by my clients are how and where they will find the liners or finished plants, or larger trees and shrubs, needed to meet customer demand. Perennial plugs seem to be of particular concern. I expect the consequences of such supply squeezes to come to bear in 2021, potentially dampening the sales boost we saw in 2020. Good pre-planning, assertive marketing and overall flexibility will be required to maintain brand integrity and quality until some market stability either returns, or we all adjust to a new “normal.” The trick is to maintain your brand reputation despite potential volatility.

Transparency

My advice to clients wondering how to prepare for supply challenges is to be upfront with your customers and quickly pivot to provide available alternatives. If you know you are either not going to be able to grow and stock a particular crop — or will only have limited quantities — be transparent about it early on. Truth in advertising is going to be very important with plant supply chains strained.

Book early

If you have not been taking pre-bookings or typically only allow for buying on availability, now would be a good time to consider a pre-season booking or pre-paid order strategy. Consider creating incentives for customers to pre-book or reserve items that will be in limited supply. This is one way to help your top customers feel confident they will have what they need to keep their business flowing this spring. It will also help them adjust and plan their own marketing; and reinforce your brand loyalty.

Market alternatives

Once you have gotten the hard truths out of the way, spend extra time and effort marketing what you will have. Customers will want to quickly move on from the negative to the positives and what you can do to help them keep their business flowing as seamlessly as possible.

Pre-selling your product will also help you more quickly pivot your seasonal marketing to promote remaining available items you can offer as alternatives. This will be especially helpful to landscapers who may need to change up standard color and perennial installations, and will need quick access to suggested substitutions.

Price points

Increase your prices but take care not to gouge. Supply and demand can certainly drive the market and there is no reason you should not improve your margins and profit on high-demand items. But resist the urge to go overboard on your price increases.

Trust is a key factor in maintaining your brand integrity and customer relationships. Artificially overinflated prices can backfire, hurting both your brand and the industry as a whole.

My advice to clients wondering how to prepare for supply challenges is to be upfront with your customers and quickly pivot to provide available alternatives.

Plant and gardening consumers are already hearing the message through the media that they should expect dramatically inflated plant pricing due supply strains. On the one hand, this is not the message we want customers to latch on to, as it could keep them from diving into as many gardening projects this spring. On the other hand, we do need consumers to become emotionally comfortable with somewhat higher plant prices as many growers are long overdue for better margins.

Consider how you will address this in any consumer-facing marketing you do, or work with your retail and landscape customers to provide better marketing messages of value.

Don’t slip

Be sure to keep an eye on quality. Limited supply and high demand may have you pushing crops out the door before they are ready or up to your normal standards. You may even feel forced to purchase plants or products you feel are substandard just to meet demand. Take care not to allow your quality to slip during this time. Again, your brand integrity relies on your customers trust in consistency and quality.

Ultimately, now is not the time to take your foot off the gas, even with potential shortages. You just may have to take a few turns off your normal route to navigate what could be both a strained and successful spring season.