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According to the latest report from National Retail Federation, the 2011 holiday season can be summed up in one word: average. On the heels of a holiday season that outperformed most analysts’ expectations, holiday retail sales for 2011 are expected to increase 2.8 percent to $465.6 billion. While that growth is far lower than the 5.2 percent increase retailers experienced last year, it is slightly higher than the ten-year average holiday sales increase of 2.6 percent.
“Retailers are optimistic that a combination of strong promotions and lean inventory levels will help them address consumer caution this holiday season,” said NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay. “While businesses remain concerned over the viability of the economic recovery, there is no doubt that the retail industry is in a better position this year to handle consumer uncertainty than it was in 2008 and 2009.”
Retailers’ enthusiasm may be tempered a bit by recent job figures. Following the announcement that U.S. employers added 103,000 jobs in September and that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.1 percent, NRF’s Shay issued the following statement:
“While the September jobs numbers were better than expected, there is no doubt the economy is still facing significant headwinds. With the start of the holiday season just three weeks away, the persistently high unemployment rate is expected to hinder consumer demand and impact confidence.”
Retailers will ramp up hiring over the next several weeks as they prepare for increased sales and traffic in their stores this holiday season. According to NRF, retailers are expected to add 480,000-500,000 seasonal positions over the next several months.
“As we look ahead to a holiday season that will send $466 billion into the U.S. economy – a higher number than the estimated $447 billion cost of President Obama’s jobs bill – it is important to remember what a powerhouse the retail industry is. Over the next several months, the retail sector is expected to add up to 500,000 seasonal jobs, which will provide an important injection into the economy that will bolster families’ income and help spur economic growth.
“As one of the largest employers in the country which supports 42 million American jobs, retailers will continue to advocate for policies that will help them add to their expansive workforce: passing the free trade agreements, visa reform, and corporate tax reform.”